The Liberals’ latest plan to fix the Canadian housing market’s problems might prove to be a valiant but ultimately futile attempt, according to veteran markets analyst Don Pittis.
Writing for CBC News, Pittis noted that despite the noble intentions, the newly introduced plan should not be expected to serve as the panacea that its proponents are hoping it to be.
“While the new government strategy makes a welcome political gesture toward solving problems created by the high cost of housing, there is evidence that the problem is bigger, more complicated and more intractable than any government can handle, even with this latest decade-long multi-billion-dollar plan,” Pittis wrote.
“The criticisms [of the plan] could be grouped into four general categories. It wasn’t enough. It was too late. It didn’t do the right things. And it didn't help the right people,” Pittis explained. “All those critiques may be fair. But what no one, including the federal government, was going to admit was that solving the housing crisis is simply impossible.”
Also, while some quarters are proposing that the government keep its hands off entirely and let the free market regulate itself, “voters don’t like the idea of some Canadian families living in cardboard boxes and others in mansions. And the government knows it.”
In a bitter irony, a solution will come in the form of a sudden crash that will come about once the property bubble bursts – and by then, “the complaint that federal spending plan is too late will become a virtue.”
At the moment, the best choice that Canadians can go for is a brutal realism that eschews previous generations’ ideas of the perfect home.
“Canada is going through a difficult transition that others have gone through before. There is no longer room for every family to have its suburban picket fence,” Pittis concluded.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/government-meddling-in-real-estate-will-not-fix-it--analyst-234682.aspx
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Real estate is driving consumer optimism says Nanos
Optimism in Canada’s real estate market is giving consumers are warm feeling as we head into winter.
The weekly barometer of Canadian consumer confidence from Bloomberg and Nanos shows an overall uptick in confidence to 59.46 for the week ending November 17, up from 58.83 a week earlier.
Although short of the 61.19 recorded in August, the index remains well above the 2017 average of 58.41.
“Over the past four weeks positive views on the future value of real estate and the economy have increased,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.
The subindex focused on job security and personal finances including mortgages was down slightly while the measure of optimism in real estate and the overall economy gained.
"While the latest survey appears to confirm building confidence in the economy and real estate values, there is a perhaps more tentative outlook regarding perceptions of job security and personal finances--factors that can affect future household spending,” explained Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/real-estate-is-driving-consumer-optimism-says-nanos-234227.aspx
The weekly barometer of Canadian consumer confidence from Bloomberg and Nanos shows an overall uptick in confidence to 59.46 for the week ending November 17, up from 58.83 a week earlier.
Although short of the 61.19 recorded in August, the index remains well above the 2017 average of 58.41.
“Over the past four weeks positive views on the future value of real estate and the economy have increased,” said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.
The subindex focused on job security and personal finances including mortgages was down slightly while the measure of optimism in real estate and the overall economy gained.
"While the latest survey appears to confirm building confidence in the economy and real estate values, there is a perhaps more tentative outlook regarding perceptions of job security and personal finances--factors that can affect future household spending,” explained Bloomberg economist Robert Lawrie.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/real-estate-is-driving-consumer-optimism-says-nanos-234227.aspx
Monday, November 20, 2017
Canada's core housing need is stable says CMHC
The share of Canada’s population that is not able to access acceptable housing has remained stable over the past decade.
Data from CMHC and Statistics Canada reveals that 1.7 million Canadian households were in core housing need in 2016, amounting to 12.7%, around the same as in 2006.
“While the proportion of Canadian households living in core housing need has remained stable over the last ten years, different trends exist among provinces and territories,” said Benjamin Williams, Director, Housing Indicators and Analytics. “Between 2011 and 2016, housing conditions have worsened in the Prairies region and in Ontario, and improved in Quebec, British Columbia and in most of the Atlantic region. Core housing need was prevalent in the territories; the rate in Nunavut remained the highest in the country at 36.5%.”
The need is higher in Ontario which accounts for all of the CMAs with the highest core housing except for Vancouver and Victoria. 1 in 7 of Ontario’s households were in core housing need last year, up 130,000 from 2011 with the share reaching 15.3%. In Toronto the rate in 2016 was 1 in 5 households.
Vancouver’s share was 14.9% in 2016 although that was a decrease from 2011.
Rising shelter costs have contributed to a rise in core housing need in all provinces with an increase except for Alberta according to census data.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/canadas-core-housing-need-is-stable-says-cmhc-234177.aspx
Data from CMHC and Statistics Canada reveals that 1.7 million Canadian households were in core housing need in 2016, amounting to 12.7%, around the same as in 2006.
“While the proportion of Canadian households living in core housing need has remained stable over the last ten years, different trends exist among provinces and territories,” said Benjamin Williams, Director, Housing Indicators and Analytics. “Between 2011 and 2016, housing conditions have worsened in the Prairies region and in Ontario, and improved in Quebec, British Columbia and in most of the Atlantic region. Core housing need was prevalent in the territories; the rate in Nunavut remained the highest in the country at 36.5%.”
The need is higher in Ontario which accounts for all of the CMAs with the highest core housing except for Vancouver and Victoria. 1 in 7 of Ontario’s households were in core housing need last year, up 130,000 from 2011 with the share reaching 15.3%. In Toronto the rate in 2016 was 1 in 5 households.
Vancouver’s share was 14.9% in 2016 although that was a decrease from 2011.
Rising shelter costs have contributed to a rise in core housing need in all provinces with an increase except for Alberta according to census data.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/canadas-core-housing-need-is-stable-says-cmhc-234177.aspx
Monday, November 13, 2017
MCAN Mortgage sees headwinds amid policy changes
The outlook for the Canadian housing market remains mixed according to MCAN Mortgage Corporation.
The lender says that the market is likely to remain volatile for the remainder of the year with a mixed performance regionally. The full impact of multiple changes in mortgage insurance rules, underwriting, taxes, and interest rates will take 6-12 months.
MCAN believes that there is still a risk of a price correction into 2018 in several markets. It says that actual sales activity in the year to September was down 11% with the GTA leading decline in three quarters of markets.
The firm made its forecast in its third quarter financial results with net income of $9.9 million, up 1% from the same period of 2016.
Impaired mortgages improved to $3.5 million from $4.4 million during the quarter while the impaired total mortgage ratio increased to 0.14% from 0.12%.
Total mortgage arrears improved to $19 million from $22 million with the quarterly total comprised entirely of single family mortgages of which $7.4 million were uninsured.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/mcan-mortgage-sees-headwinds-amid-policy-changes-233838.aspx
The lender says that the market is likely to remain volatile for the remainder of the year with a mixed performance regionally. The full impact of multiple changes in mortgage insurance rules, underwriting, taxes, and interest rates will take 6-12 months.
MCAN believes that there is still a risk of a price correction into 2018 in several markets. It says that actual sales activity in the year to September was down 11% with the GTA leading decline in three quarters of markets.
The firm made its forecast in its third quarter financial results with net income of $9.9 million, up 1% from the same period of 2016.
Impaired mortgages improved to $3.5 million from $4.4 million during the quarter while the impaired total mortgage ratio increased to 0.14% from 0.12%.
Total mortgage arrears improved to $19 million from $22 million with the quarterly total comprised entirely of single family mortgages of which $7.4 million were uninsured.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/mcan-mortgage-sees-headwinds-amid-policy-changes-233838.aspx
Thursday, November 9, 2017
This could cut $70m from cost of Ontario homes
Utilizing technology for building permits could save $70 million on the cost of new homes in Ontario with millions more saved in the non-residential sector.
The Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) wants to run a pilot program for e-permitting following a study with Ryerson University's Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.
An investigation into how other jurisdictions use e-permitting is also being undertaken by University of Toronto professor Arash Shahi.
"We're talking really of a two-stage process, where the first stage is e-permitting, the submission of plans and applications electronically, which are reviewed manually at the municipality," says Shahi. "The second stage, which produces the most savings, is automated e-permitting, where those plans and applications are submitted online and then automatically reviewed using software — and there are quite a few companies making this software."
Shahi is part of RESCON’s working group looking into a pilot project in the province.
If the use of software which links into the CAD document speeds up the permit process as expected, it would cut costs for developers which could be passed onto homebuyers.
"While there are online submissions today in Toronto, they end up printing off the documents and reviewing them," says Shahi. "What we're talking about is reviewing the documents on large screens the size of televisions and using software to automate the process."
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/this-could-cut-70m-from-cost-of-ontario-homes-233500.aspx
The Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON) wants to run a pilot program for e-permitting following a study with Ryerson University's Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.
An investigation into how other jurisdictions use e-permitting is also being undertaken by University of Toronto professor Arash Shahi.
"We're talking really of a two-stage process, where the first stage is e-permitting, the submission of plans and applications electronically, which are reviewed manually at the municipality," says Shahi. "The second stage, which produces the most savings, is automated e-permitting, where those plans and applications are submitted online and then automatically reviewed using software — and there are quite a few companies making this software."
Shahi is part of RESCON’s working group looking into a pilot project in the province.
If the use of software which links into the CAD document speeds up the permit process as expected, it would cut costs for developers which could be passed onto homebuyers.
"While there are online submissions today in Toronto, they end up printing off the documents and reviewing them," says Shahi. "What we're talking about is reviewing the documents on large screens the size of televisions and using software to automate the process."
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/this-could-cut-70m-from-cost-of-ontario-homes-233500.aspx
Monday, November 6, 2017
OREA calls for higher real estate agent education standards
The education program for real estate agents should be tougher and set North America-leading standards.
That’s the call from the Ontario Real Estate Association which says that current training for agents is outdated and should be replaced with a program that produces highly educated, well-trained and practice-ready professionals.
“Raising the professional standards of Ontario Realtors begins with improving the education that happens before becoming a licensed professional,” said Ettore Cardarelli, OREA President. “A stronger education program will better prepare salespeople for our increasingly complex real estate market, and the challenges that come with helping families through the biggest purchase of their lives.”
OREA’s Real Estate College was the sole provider of real estate education licensing prior to 2008 when the Real Estate Council of Ontario took control of the curriculum and standards. Since then, OREA says, the program has fallen behind.
“The current curriculum diminishes the importance of a Realtor, homes and property to Ontarians,” said Cardarelli. “Despite our best efforts to upgrade the standards by which real estate licensing education is granted, our hands have been tied since 2008 by RECO, the government regulator. This is our opportunity to have our recommendations for improving education considered and hopefully implemented.”
OREA has influenced the provincial government in its decision to review the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act 2002 in a bid to improve standards.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/orea-calls-for-higher-real-estate-agent-education-standards-233423.aspx
That’s the call from the Ontario Real Estate Association which says that current training for agents is outdated and should be replaced with a program that produces highly educated, well-trained and practice-ready professionals.
“Raising the professional standards of Ontario Realtors begins with improving the education that happens before becoming a licensed professional,” said Ettore Cardarelli, OREA President. “A stronger education program will better prepare salespeople for our increasingly complex real estate market, and the challenges that come with helping families through the biggest purchase of their lives.”
OREA’s Real Estate College was the sole provider of real estate education licensing prior to 2008 when the Real Estate Council of Ontario took control of the curriculum and standards. Since then, OREA says, the program has fallen behind.
“The current curriculum diminishes the importance of a Realtor, homes and property to Ontarians,” said Cardarelli. “Despite our best efforts to upgrade the standards by which real estate licensing education is granted, our hands have been tied since 2008 by RECO, the government regulator. This is our opportunity to have our recommendations for improving education considered and hopefully implemented.”
OREA has influenced the provincial government in its decision to review the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act 2002 in a bid to improve standards.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/orea-calls-for-higher-real-estate-agent-education-standards-233423.aspx
Thursday, November 2, 2017
Economy looking strong as provincial gap narrows
The Canadian economy is expected to end the year with growth of 3.1% with some positive expansion of regional economies.
BMO’s Blue Book forecasts 2017 to match the strongest growth in Canadian GDP since the financial crisis and some positive trends for the provinces.
"The big story at the regional level is a narrowing gap between the best and worst performers, as the recession fades in oil-producing provinces, while British Columbia and Central Canada should moderate after a few years of blistering growth," said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets.
Leading the predicted growth is Alberta at 4.1% while BC and Ontario should expand by around 3%. Growth should be around 2.7% for Quebec; just over 2% for Manitoba; almost 2% for Nova Scotia and PEI; 1.7% for Saskatchewan; and 1.5% for New Brunswick.
Newfoundland & Labrador is set to contract by 2% though as major spending projects reach completion.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/economy-looking-strong-as-provincial-gap-narrows-233218.aspx
BMO’s Blue Book forecasts 2017 to match the strongest growth in Canadian GDP since the financial crisis and some positive trends for the provinces.
"The big story at the regional level is a narrowing gap between the best and worst performers, as the recession fades in oil-producing provinces, while British Columbia and Central Canada should moderate after a few years of blistering growth," said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets.
Leading the predicted growth is Alberta at 4.1% while BC and Ontario should expand by around 3%. Growth should be around 2.7% for Quebec; just over 2% for Manitoba; almost 2% for Nova Scotia and PEI; 1.7% for Saskatchewan; and 1.5% for New Brunswick.
Newfoundland & Labrador is set to contract by 2% though as major spending projects reach completion.
Source: http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/economy-looking-strong-as-provincial-gap-narrows-233218.aspx
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